If you believe in the weather forecasts in the Farmers’ Almanac, you should be afraid - very afraid.
The almanac is predicting another active hurricane season, a winter that’s snowier and much colder than the last one, and a warmer, drier summer with possible drought conditions.
‘‘The cold may not be as frigid as 30 or 40 years ago, but we do expect this to be the coldest winter we’ve seen for quite a few years,’’ editor Peter Geiger said in the 2007 almanac, which was released today.
The almanac has been published annually since 1818. According to its Web site, the writers base the almanac’s forecasts on ‘‘a top-secret mathematical and astronomical formula.’’
Along with weather predictions, the almanac contains gardening calendars, fishing information, astronomical charts and recipes.
In October, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will issue a winter outlook for December, January and February.
Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist and public-affairs specialist at the National Weather Service headquarters in Silver , Spring, Md., said: ‘‘We have an indication that we will have a 50-50 chance of an El Niño condition. While that will not affect the hurricane season, it will affect the winter.’’
El Niño is a disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific. The warmer-than-normal water conditions change weather patterns and temperatures around the world, particularly in the United States.
The last strong El Niño occurred in 2002. Massachusetts was in a drought most of that summer.
Feltgen dispelled the notion that just because there is a warm winter one year, the next winter is bound to be particularly cold.
‘‘There’s no relationship from one year to the next,’’ he said.
Nationwide, the winter of 2005-06 was the fifth warmest since records started being kept, in 1895. Massachusetts experienced its 19th-warmest winter on record.
Most meteorologists say weather cannot be forecast more than five days in advance, but the Farmers’ Almanac claims 75 to 80 percent accuracy in its long-range predictions.
‘‘I can’t speak for the Farmers’ Almanac,’’ Feltgren said. ‘‘I know it’s based a lot on climatology, but I have no idea what their magic formula is.’’
