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Yen May Rise as Household Confidence Set to Reach 15-Year High

March 13 (Bloomberg) -- The yen may rise against the dollar, rebounding from a five-week low, on speculation Japan's households in February were more confident than they have been for the past 15 years.

Signs of increased confidence may push the Bank of Japan closer to raising benchmark interest rates from near zero percent later this year, helping the yen recoup some of last week's 2.3 percent drop against the dollar, the biggest decline in four months. Japan's central bank March 9 decided to end a five-year policy of pumping money into the economy to fight deflation.

``Some traders will use strong Japanese economic figures as an excuse to buy back the yen,'' said Michiyoshi Kato, vice president of currency sales in Tokyo at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd., a unit of Japan's second-largest lender by assets. ``The yen was sold a bit too much last week, and yen selling may not extend to today.''

Japan's currency was at 118.99 against the dollar at 8:30 a.m. in Tokyo from 119.01 in New York March 10, when it fell as low as 119.15, the weakest since Feb. 7. It was also at 141.80 versus the euro, from 141.75. The dollar was at $1.1917 per euro, from $1.1910.

The yen will move between 118.50 and 119.40 against the dollar today, Kato said.

Consumer confidence among households with two or more people probably rose to 50.0 last month, the highest since June 1990, from 49.5 in January, the Cabinet Office may say at 2:00 p.m. today in Tokyo, according to a Bloomberg survey. Readings below 50 mean pessimists outnumber optimists. The index has only been above 50 four times since 1982.

Consumer spending accounts for more than half the economy.

``The 119 yen level is a good opportunity to sell the dollar, especially for Japanese exporters,'' Kato added.


To contact the reporter on this story:
Kosuke Goto in Tokyo at  kgoto2@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: March 12, 2006 18:35 EST

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