Posted on Fri, Sep. 15, 2006

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Future is not now for Breeders' Cup bets

By Gary West

Star-Telegram Staff Writer

Bernardini is the 7-4 favorite for the Breeders' Cup Classic. Those odds, of course, are available in one of many futures pools, which invite you to bet on races in the distant future, or, in this case, on a race run Nov. 4 at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. -- not that any Texan would consider doing such a thing, for investing in horse futures over the Internet is illegal here, even if investing in stock futures isn't.

And even if I weren't a Texan, I wouldn't bet futures. I'm the father of two boys, and that, I believe, exposes me to enough risk stretching into the distant future.

Nevertheless, to judge by the number of futures pools out there, many people already are wagering on the Breeders' Cup. The only surprise there is that Bernardini is such an immediate and overwhelming favorite.

Is "Bernardini" Italian for "Secretariat?" You might think so. In a race that's still seven weeks down the stretch, his odds are 2-1 or less everywhere; at least one bookmaker in Australia has put him at 7-4.

Such squat odds might represent a good idea, but from here they seem at least premature. Aside from a yearning to see a dominant superstar, Bernardini's odds also imply that bettors and bookmakers don't view the Classic as contentious. And September is too early for such a conclusion.

With a string of victories that include the Travers and the Preakness, Bernardini very well could be, along with Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper and Point Given, one of the most talented horses to come along in this century's foyer of a decade. But he'll have a tough race before the Classic, the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Oct. 7, and at Churchill Downs he could face not only this country's best older horses, such as Invasor and Lava Man, but possibly Europe's, too.

Shirocco, Dylan Thomas and David Junior, three of the world's most accomplished racehorses, all could be aimed at the Classic. Last year's winner of the Breeders' Cup Turf, Shirocco recently won the Prix Foy in France. Dylan Thomas won the recent Irish Champions Stakes at Leopardstown, and David Junior the Duty Free in Dubai.

So the Classic could be as competitive as the Oklahoma Land Rush, even with a young superstar in the gate.

As for the other Breeders' Cup races, they, too, are taking on a rounded shape.

In the Distaff, Fleet Indian is the clear favorite because of her six consecutive victories. But most of her wins have been joyrides, and two improving 3-year-olds, Pine Island and Teammate, as well as an upstart named Play Ballado, could make this one of the more intriguing Breeders' Cup races.

The juvenile races are always fraught with intrigue. Circular Quay, who won the Hopeful, and Nobiz Like Shobiz, who won his debut Saturday at Belmont, are the best 2-year-olds I've seen this year, but look for many more contenders to emerge in the coming weeks.

So look for this Breeders' Cup to be even more intriguing than its futures.

Briefly

The thoroughbred foal crop for Texas in 2006 fell 10 percent from a year ago, to 1,289, according to The Jockey Club, the official registrar of the breed.

Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro continues to improve. Dean Richardson, chief of surgery at New Bolton Center in Pennsylvania, said Barbaro is wearing a cast on his right hind leg well, and the left foot is also "progressing well." Still, Richardson urged caution.

Arkansas Derby winner Lawyer Ron and Dwyer Stakes winner Strong Contender are set to meet in the Sept. 23 Super Derby at Louisiana Downs in Bossier City. Trainer Bob Baffert said he was also considering Point Determined for the race.